Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 July 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Jul, 14 Jul, 15 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 667 km/s at 12/2021Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/2113Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 12/0820Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 654 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (13 Jul, 14 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (15 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul

Class M    10/10/10

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           12 Jul 116

Predicted   13 Jul-15 Jul 115/110/110

90 Day Mean        12 Jul 124

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul  020/025

Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul  011/013

Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul  009/008-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                25/20/10

Minor Storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           30/25/20

Major-severe storm    30/25/20