Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 July 2014

By SpaceRef Editor
July 12, 2014
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
12/1408Z from Region 2108 (S07W77). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (13 Jul) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and
three (14 Jul, 15 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 413 km/s at
12/2044Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 12/1730Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 12/1104Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 Jul), quiet levels on
day two (14 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (15 Jul).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on day one (13 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
Class M 60/50/30
Class X 10/05/05
Proton 10/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jul 145
Predicted 13 Jul-15 Jul 135/130/120
90 Day Mean 12 Jul 137

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul 007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul 008/010-007/008-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/25
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20

SpaceRef staff editor.