Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 July 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
12/1733Z from Region 1785 (S11W68). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (13 Jul, 14 Jul)
and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day
three (15 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
525 km/s at 12/1808Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 12/1631Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 12/0138Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 22470 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (13 Jul, 14
Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (15 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
Class M 10/10/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jul 118
Predicted 13 Jul-15 Jul 110/110/105
90 Day Mean 12 Jul 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul 015/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul 010/015-018/025-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/30
Minor Storm 15/30/15
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 40/65/50