Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 January 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 12 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Jan, 14 Jan, 15 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 488 km/s at 12/0305Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 11/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 11/2334Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 154 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Jan, 14 Jan, 15 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jan 073
Predicted 13 Jan-15 Jan 073/073/074
90 Day Mean 12 Jan 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan 010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan 006/005-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/15