Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 12 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 12/1444Z from Region 2255 (S15W68). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Jan, 14 Jan, 15 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 513 km/s at 12/0604Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 11/2124Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 12/0542Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 464 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jan 159
Predicted 13 Jan-15 Jan 175/175/170
90 Day Mean 12 Jan 160
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan 007/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
