Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 Feburary 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 43 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Feb, 14 Feb, 15 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 361 km/s at 11/2342Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 12/1821Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 12/1903Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4590 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (13 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (14 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (15 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Feb 076
Predicted   13 Feb-15 Feb 077/077/077
90 Day Mean        12 Feb 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb  006/005-007/008-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/30
Minor Storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    10/30/40