Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 February 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 43 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Feb, 14 Feb, 15 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 360 km/s at 11/2257Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 12/1905Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 12/1848Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (13 Feb, 14 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (15 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Feb 072
Predicted 13 Feb-15 Feb 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 12 Feb 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 010/012-009/012-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/40
Minor Storm 01/10/30
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/05
Minor Storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 15/40/65