Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 February 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 43 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 12/0135Z from Region 2699 (S07W29). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Feb, 14 Feb, 15 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 348 km/s at 12/1756Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 12/0433Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 12/1729Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (13 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (14 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (15 Feb). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (13 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     10/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Feb 079
Predicted   13 Feb-15 Feb 078/078/078
90 Day Mean        12 Feb 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb  002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb  006/005-007/008-020/028

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/35
Minor Storm           01/10/30
Major-severe storm    01/01/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           15/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/35/60