Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 February 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 43 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 12/1047Z from Region 2497 (N13W19). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Feb, 14 Feb, 15 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 375 km/s at 12/0249Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 12/1938Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 12/0752Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 Feb) and quiet to minor storm levels on days two and three (14 Feb, 15 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (13 Feb, 14 Feb, 15 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 15/15/15
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Feb 112
Predicted 13 Feb-15 Feb 109/107/107
90 Day Mean 12 Feb 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb 008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb 012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 010/010-011/012-019/027

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/35/40
Minor Storm 05/15/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/10
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/50/60