Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 43 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 12/0212Z from Region 2280 (S06W81). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day one (13 Feb) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (14 Feb, 15 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 399 km/s at 11/2229Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 12/1027Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 12/1120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 399 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (13 Feb, 14 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (15 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
Class M 25/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Feb 128
Predicted 13 Feb-15 Feb 120/125/130
90 Day Mean 12 Feb 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 008/008-008/008-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
