Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 February 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 43 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
12/0425Z from Region 1974 (S13W12). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(13 Feb, 14 Feb, 15 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
472 km/s at 12/0327Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 12/2057Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 11/2144Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 678 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (13 Feb), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (14 Feb) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (15
Feb).

III. Event probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Feb 160
Predicted 13 Feb-15 Feb 155/150/150
90 Day Mean 12 Feb 155

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 005/005-015/025-028/040

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/40/35
Minor Storm 01/25/40
Major-severe storm 01/05/20
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/05
Minor Storm 15/25/20
Major-severe storm 05/60/75