Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 December 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Dec, 14 Dec, 15 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 339 km/s at 11/2257Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 571 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 Dec), quiet levels on day two (14 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (15 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Dec 080
Predicted 13 Dec-15 Dec 080/080/082
90 Day Mean 12 Dec 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec 008/008-005/005-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/30
Minor Storm 05/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/30
Major-severe storm 30/15/40