Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 December 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Dec, 14 Dec, 15 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 451 km/s at 12/0931Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 12/1146Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 12/0304Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Dec, 14 Dec, 15 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Dec 071
Predicted 13 Dec-15 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 12 Dec 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec 005/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10