Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 December 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Dec, 14 Dec, 15 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 12/0626Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2655 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Dec, 14 Dec, 15 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Dec 071
Predicted   13 Dec-15 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        12 Dec 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec  005/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/15/15