Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 December 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Dec, 14 Dec, 15 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 580 km/s at 11/2154Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 11/2345Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 12/0119Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 17711 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Dec, 14 Dec, 15 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Dec 071
Predicted 13 Dec-15 Dec 070/075/075
90 Day Mean 12 Dec 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec 011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10