Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 12/1440Z from Region 2234 (N04W12). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Dec, 14 Dec, 15 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 697 km/s at 12/2059Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 12/0122Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 12/1040Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2927 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (13 Dec) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (14 Dec, 15 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Dec 154
Predicted 13 Dec-15 Dec 160/165/170
90 Day Mean 12 Dec 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec 015/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec 015/018-012/015-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
