Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 August 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug, 15 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 448 km/s at 12/0353Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 12/1559Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 12/1418Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 158 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug, 15 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Aug 074
Predicted 13 Aug-15 Aug 073/073/072
90 Day Mean 12 Aug 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug 006/008-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/25/25