Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 August 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (13Aug, 14 Aug, 15 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 330 km/s at 12/0745Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1575 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug, 15

III. Event probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Aug 073
Predicted 13 Aug-15 Aug 074/074/074
90 Day Mean 12 Aug 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug 006/005-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10