Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 August 2016

By SpaceRef Editor
August 12, 2016
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug, 15 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 868 km/s at 12/1314Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 11/2118Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7552 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (13 Aug, 14 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (15 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Aug 095
Predicted 13 Aug-15 Aug 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 12 Aug 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug 008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug 010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug 007/008-007/008-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 01/01/10
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05

 

SpaceRef staff editor.