Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 August 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug, 15 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 466 km/s at 12/1313Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 12/0918Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 12/1745Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2834 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug, 15 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Aug 099
Predicted 13 Aug-15 Aug 100/095/095
90 Day Mean 12 Aug 112

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 15/15/15