Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 August 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
12/1041Z from Region 1817 (S23E07). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug,
15 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 412 km/s at
11/2148Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 12/2042Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -7 nT at 12/2041Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 783 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (13 Aug, 14 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (15 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Aug 114
Predicted 13 Aug-15 Aug 115/120/120
90 Day Mean 12 Aug 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug 007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug 007/008-006/005-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/15
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/25
Major-severe storm 20/05/25