Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 April 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 102 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Apr 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 12/0649Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (13 Apr, 14 Apr) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (15 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 522 km/s at 12/1515Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 12/1204Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 12/1132Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1643 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Apr), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (14 Apr) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (15 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr
Class M 01/01/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Apr 096
Predicted 13 Apr-15 Apr 098/098/102
90 Day Mean 12 Apr 113

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Apr 013/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Apr 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr 012/012-023/035-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/35
Minor Storm 15/40/30
Major-severe storm 01/25/15
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor Storm 25/15/20
Major-severe storm 50/79/70