Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 October 2019

By SpaceRef Editor
October 11, 2019
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Oct, 13 Oct, 14 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 512 km/s at 11/1347Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 11/0217Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 11/1135Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 514 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (12 Oct, 14 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (13 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Oct 069
Predicted 12 Oct-14 Oct 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 11 Oct 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct 010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 006/005-008/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/15/15
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 05/25/15

SpaceRef staff editor.