Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 October 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Oct, 13 Oct, 14 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 447 km/s at 11/1517Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 11/1403Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 11/1855Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 600 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (12 Oct), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (13 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (14 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Oct 099
Predicted 12 Oct-14 Oct 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 11 Oct 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct 007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 006/005-012/018-015/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/35/35
Minor Storm 05/10/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/20/25