Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 October 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
October 11, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (12 Oct) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (13 Oct, 14 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 595 km/s at 10/2316Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 11/1932Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 11/1804Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 60051 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (12 Oct), quiet to active levels on day two (13 Oct) and unsettled to active levels on day three (14 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
Class M 01/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Oct 085
Predicted 12 Oct-14 Oct 085/090/090
90 Day Mean 11 Oct 101

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct 009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct 010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 013/020-013/015-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/35
Minor Storm 25/10/20
Major-severe storm 05/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/10
Minor Storm 25/35/30
Major-severe storm 60/40/55

SpaceRef staff editor.