Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 November 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Nov, 13 Nov, 14 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 426 km/s at 10/2130Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 962 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expectedto be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Nov, 13 Nov, 14 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Nov 085
Predicted 12 Nov-14 Nov 086/085/085
90 Day Mean 11 Nov 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10