Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 November 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 11/1912Z from Region 2782 (S31E64). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Nov, 13 Nov, 14 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 354 km/s at 11/1939Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 11/2059Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 11/1936Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2248 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Nov 088
Predicted 12 Nov-14 Nov 088/088/088
90 Day Mean 11 Nov 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov 000/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov 007/008-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20