Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 November 2019

By SpaceRef Editor
November 11, 2019
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Nov, 13 Nov, 14 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 395 km/s at 11/1313Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 11/2023Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 11/0948Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 657 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Nov 070
Predicted 12 Nov-14 Nov 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 11 Nov 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov 010/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/10/10
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/15/15
Major-severe storm 40/10/10

SpaceRef staff editor.