Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 November 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (12 Nov) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 527 km/s at 11/1435Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 10/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 10/2200Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (12 Nov), unsettled to active levels on day two (13 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (14 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Nov 078
Predicted 12 Nov-14 Nov 075/072/072
90 Day Mean 11 Nov 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov 011/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov 013/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov 018/020-015/018-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/20
Minor Storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20