Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 November 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
November 11, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Nov, 13 Nov, 14 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 805 km/s at 11/0609Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 11/0109Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 11/0012Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 59508 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (12 Nov), unsettled to active levels on day two (13 Nov) and active to minor storm levels on day three (14 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Nov 105
Predicted 12 Nov-14 Nov 105/105/110
90 Day Mean 11 Nov 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov 032/035
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov 021/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov 022/030-012/015-018/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/40
Minor Storm 25/10/20
Major-severe storm 10/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/10
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 60/40/55

 

SpaceRef staff editor.