Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 November 2014
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
11/1122Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (12 Nov) and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an
X-class flare on day two (13 Nov) and likely to be moderate with a
chance for X-class flares on day three (14 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
555 km/s at 10/2122Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 11/1942Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 11/2048Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Nov, 13 Nov, 14
Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (12 Nov, 13 Nov, 14 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
Class M 50/60/70
Class X 10/20/30
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Nov 142
Predicted 12 Nov-14 Nov 165/180/180
90 Day Mean 11 Nov 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov 016/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov 005/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20
