Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 November 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
11/1118Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Nov, 13
Nov, 14 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
588 km/s at 10/2113Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 11/0330Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 11/0334Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 686 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Nov), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (13 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (14 Nov).
Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three
(12 Nov, 13 Nov, 14 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 30/30/30
Proton 30/30/30
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Nov 164
Predicted 12 Nov-14 Nov 165/165/165
90 Day Mean 11 Nov 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov 009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov 012/012-009/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 30/25/10