Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 May 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 11/1858Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (12 May) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and three (13 May, 14 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 322 km/s at 11/1414Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 11/1558Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 11/1912Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 163 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (12 May, 13 May, 14 May).

III. Event probabilities 12 May-14 May
Class M 55/50/50
Class X 20/15/15
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 May 133
Predicted 12 May-14 May 124/124/126
90 Day Mean 11 May 118

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 May 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 May 005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May 005/006-008/008-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May-14 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/25
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/30
Major-severe storm 25/30/40