Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 May 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 May, 13 May, 14 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 495 km/s at 11/0928Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 11/0145Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 11/0702Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3374 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (13 May) and quiet levels on day three (14 May).
III. Event probabilities 12 May-14 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 May 078
Predicted 12 May-14 May 077/077/077
90 Day Mean 11 May 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 May 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 May 019/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May 015/016-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May-14 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 40/20/10