Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 May 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 May, 12 May, 13 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 723 km/s at 10/0100Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 10/1303Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/2150Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 54929 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (12 May) and quiet levels on day three (13 May).

III. Event probabilities 11 May-13 May
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 May 089
Predicted 11 May-13 May 090/092/098
90 Day Mean 10 May 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 May 021/030
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 May 017/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May 012/014-009/010-006/006

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May-13 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/15
Minor Storm 15/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 40/30/20