Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 May 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
May 11, 2015
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 May 2015

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2015

 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 11/0409Z. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

 

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 May, 13 May, 14 May).

 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 400 km/s at 11/1108Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 10/2232Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 10/2313Z.

 

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (12 May, 13 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (14 May).

 

III.  Event probabilities 12 May-14 May

Class M    30/30/30

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     05/05/05

PCAF       green

 

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           11 May 163

Predicted   12 May-14 May 165/160/155

90 Day Mean        11 May 127

 

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 10 May  012/011

Estimated Afr/Ap 11 May  012/014

Predicted Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May  017/025-019/025-011/012

 

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May-14 May

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                40/40/35

Minor Storm           25/25/15

Major-severe storm    05/05/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                10/10/10

Minor Storm           25/25/30

Major-severe storm    60/60/45

 

SpaceRef staff editor.