Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 11/0409Z. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 May, 13 May, 14 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 400 km/s at 11/1108Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 10/2232Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 10/2313Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (12 May, 13 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (14 May).
III. Event probabilities 12 May-14 May
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 May 163
Predicted 12 May-14 May 165/160/155
90 Day Mean 11 May 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 May 012/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 May 012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May 017/025-019/025-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May-14 May
