Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 May 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
11/0443Z from Region 2058 (S11E30). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (12 May, 13 May, 14 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
440 km/s at 11/1613Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 11/0322Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 11/0257Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 May), quiet levels on
day two (13 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (14 May).

III. Event probabilities 12 May-14 May
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 May 164
Predicted 12 May-14 May 160/160/165
90 Day Mean 11 May 150

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 May 010/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 May 011/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May 009/008-006/005-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May-14 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/25
Major-severe storm 10/05/20