Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 March 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 70 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 10/2343Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Mar, 13 Mar, 14 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 420 km/s at 11/1426Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 10/2103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 11/0542Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 11/0720Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 209 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (12 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (13 Mar) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (14 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Mar 127
Predicted 12 Mar-14 Mar 125/125/125
90 Day Mean 11 Mar 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar 007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar 014/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar 006/008-008/010-020/030

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/35
Minor Storm 01/05/40
Major-severe storm 01/01/20
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/05
Minor Storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 15/30/80