Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 March 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 70 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Mar, 13 Mar, 14 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 460 km/s at 11/1213Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 10/2107Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 11/0407Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 168 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (12 Mar, 13 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (14 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Mar 068
Predicted   12 Mar-14 Mar 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        11 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar  006/005-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/20