Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 March 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 70 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Mar, 13 Mar, 14 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 450 km/s at 10/2145Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/1933Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 11/1740Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 14629 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Mar, 13 Mar, 14 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Mar 070
Predicted   12 Mar-14 Mar 070/070/072
90 Day Mean        11 Mar 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar  014/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05