Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 March 2016

By SpaceRef Editor
March 11, 2016
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 71 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Mar, 13 Mar, 14 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 596 km/s at 11/1924Z. Total IMF reached 27 nT at 11/1150Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -25 nT at 11/1150Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 673 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (13 Mar, 14 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Mar 094
Predicted 12 Mar-14 Mar 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 11 Mar 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar 018/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar 013/015-008/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 30/20/20

SpaceRef staff editor.