Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 March 2015
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 70 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at 11/1622Z from Region 2297 (S16E14). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Mar, 13 Mar, 14 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 458 km/s at 11/0446Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 11/0712Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 11/0651Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 900 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Mar), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (13 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day three (14 Mar). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (12 Mar, 13 Mar, 14 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Mar 132
Predicted 12 Mar-14 Mar 125/125/125
90 Day Mean 11 Mar 141
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar 013/018-021/030-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/40/30
Minor Storm 10/25/05
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 45/60/35
