Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 March 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 70 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M3/1f flare observed
at 11/0350Z from Region 1996 (N14W64). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(12 Mar, 13 Mar, 14 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 360 km/s at
11/0913Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/1150Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 11/1434Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Mar, 13 Mar, 14
Mar).

III. Event probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
Class M 75/75/75
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Mar 165
Predicted 12 Mar-14 Mar 165/165/160
90 Day Mean 11 Mar 159

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05