Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 March 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 70 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
11/1655Z from Region 1695 (N09E70). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Mar,
13 Mar, 14 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 335 km/s at
11/0547Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 10/2318Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 11/0426Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 292 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Mar, 13 Mar, 14
Mar).

III. Event probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Mar 120
Predicted 12 Mar-14 Mar 120/120/118
90 Day Mean 11 Mar 116

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10