Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 June 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 162 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jun 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 11/1410Z from Region 3030 (N20E52). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Jun, 13 Jun, 14 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 368 km/s at 11/1357Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 11/1439Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 11/0519Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 150 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Jun, 13 Jun, 14 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jun 112
Predicted 12 Jun-14 Jun 115/120/120
90 Day Mean 11 Jun 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jun 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jun 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun 006/005-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10