Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 June 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 162 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jun 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Jun, 13 Jun, 14 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 331 km/s at 10/2121Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 11/1452Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 11/2034Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1842 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (12 Jun, 13 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (14 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jun 070
Predicted   12 Jun-14 Jun 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        11 Jun 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jun  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jun  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun  008/008-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    25/25/10