Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 June 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 162 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jun 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Jun, 13 Jun, 14 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 435 km/s at 11/1815Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 11/1433Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 11/1441Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 560 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (13 Jun, 14 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jun 074
Predicted   12 Jun-14 Jun 077/078/076
90 Day Mean        11 Jun 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jun  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jun  013/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun  013/015-010/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    15/25/10