Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 June 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jun 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Jun, 13 Jun, 14 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 657 km/s at 11/1039Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 10/2104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 10/2152Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 641 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (13 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (14 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jun 088
Predicted 12 Jun-14 Jun 088/088/088
90 Day Mean 11 Jun 091

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jun 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jun 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun 011/012-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 30/25/15
Major-severe storm 35/20/15