Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 June 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 162 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jun 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Jun,
13 Jun, 14 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
432 km/s at 11/0408Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 11/1638Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 11/1125Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 943 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Jun, 13 Jun, 14
Jun).

III. Event probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jun 090
Predicted 12 Jun-14 Jun 095/095/100
90 Day Mean 11 Jun 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jun 012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jun 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/15