Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 July 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 10/2343Z from Region 3056 (S15E65). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul, 14 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 462 km/s at 11/1033Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 11/1653Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 11/1744Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 240 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul, 14 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 15/15/15
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jul 161
Predicted 12 Jul-14 Jul 160/165/165
90 Day Mean 11 Jul 128

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 013/015-020/028-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/30
Minor Storm 20/30/15
Major-severe storm 05/15/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/05/15
Minor Storm 25/20/30
Major-severe storm 60/70/50